[rimprona] RIMpro anomalies

Mon Apr 11 11:28:41 EDT 2016

I did not change either biofix or model parameters between yesterday and today, but the RIM values for last Friday and Saturday definitely changed between last night and this morning.  I just checked them again in the MeteoBlue system and they are now reading 835 for both 8 and 9 April.  Thus, the change that you made, Marc, resulted in a slight reduction but did not take the model back to what it was showing last evening.

I do not have the time or capabilities to put out potted trees, and I am not closely monitoring wetting periods.  However, I believe that our NEWA station is closer to reality than either MeteoBlue or HRDPS as it relates to the weather history for this year.  Furthermore, it is my impression that other NEWA stations in our region are showing RIMpro data similary to what I am seeing at Highland.  Thus, I think that virtual stations still have problems assessing leaf wetting, continuing a weakness (as I understand it) that has been a historical problem with virtual forecasts.
********************************************
Dave Rosenberger, Plant Pathologist,
Hudson Valley Lab, P.O. Box 727, Highland, NY 12528
    Cell:     845-594-3060
********************************************

On Apr 11, 2016, at 10:10 AM, Marc Trapman <marc at rimpro.eu<mailto:marc at rimpro.eu>> wrote:

Hi,

RIMpro values from the past should not change as the weather-data are fixed in te file, unless you change parameters: either biofix or model parameters.

In the MeteoBue calculations the LW values are the results of LW calculations of 10 random leaves. As these calculations are re-run over the season, also over the past data,  minor changes could occur as rounding the the results of these 10 leafs.

I have been working on the Leaf-wetness model that is applied on the MeteoBlue data as sometimes the leaf-wetness on one or two of the 10 leafs got stuck and leafs stay wet over several days.
I just have put a debugged version now on the system and will follow this closely the coming days.
Can you please check if leaf-wetness as generated by the LW model for the MeteoBlue data is correct now ?

With kind regards,
Marc

Op 11 apr. 2016  (week15), om 15:25 heeft David A. Rosenberger <dar22 at cornell.edu<mailto:dar22 at cornell.edu>> het volgende geschreven:

As most of you probably know if you have referenced earlier posts on my blog, I have been running RIMpro using the NEWA weather station at Highland with the Norwegian yr.no<http://yr.no/> forecast as well as the MeteoBlue virtual weather data set up for the same location.  So far, the MeteoBlue forecast seems to be predicting longer wetting periods and/or warmer temps than the yr.no<http://yr.no/> forecast, but the yr.no<http://yr.no/> forecast seems to be closer to reality as measured by our on-ground NEWA station.  Thus, for the next two days, the MeteoBlue system is predicting a RIM event that will reach 482 whereas the yr.no<http://yr.no/> system is predicting an event that will reach a RIM value of only 11.  I have not taken time to determine if the major difference between the two systems is wetting during or temperature, but I believe it is wetting duration.

Of more concern to me is a pattern with MeteoBlue that I do not yet undestand.  I had assumed that if I checked the recorded RIM value for yesterday, that value would remain constant throughout the rest of the season because that weather event is now history. (In fact I have been recording the RIM values of the previous day every morning.)  What I am finding, however, is that (at least with MeteoBlue) the history also changes over time.  For example, when I checked the Venturia table yesterday at 5 pm, the MeteoBlue table said that the RIM value for Sat, 9 April, was 10. When I checked this morning, the history for Sat, 9 April was showing a RIM value of 1166 and the value for Friday, 8 April (which had previously been 1) was now shoing 1079.  Thus, MeteoBlue seems to be generating major RIM events after the fact when none are showing at the time that they should be appearing as part of on-going weather systems.

Can someone explain why RIMpro in the MeteoBlue system seems to be changing the previously recorded history in the RIMpro Venturia table?
********************************************
Dave Rosenberger, Plant Pathologist,
Hudson Valley Lab, P.O. Box 727, Highland, NY 12528
    Cell:     845-594-3060
********************************************

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Marc Trapman
Bio Fruit Advies / RIMpro
marc at rimpro.eu<mailto:marc at rimpro.eu>

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