[rimprona] Recent observations on RIMpro

Thu Apr 28 10:11:36 EDT 2016

Our models look much like Dave’s. In addition to looking at NEWA and RIMpro driven by weather stations/yr.no <http://yr.no/>,, Meteo Blue and HRDPS, we’ve been following SkyBit and Ag-Radar which is driven by SkyBit, all for the UMass orchard at Belchertown.

NEWA			history = weather station on site; forecast is US National Weather Service
RIMpro NEWA  	history =  NEWA weather station;  forecast is YR.NO
RIMpro MB 		history =  MB; forecast is MB
RIMpro HRDPS	history =  HRDPS;  forecast is YR.NO
SkyBit			history = ZedX; forecast is ZedX
Ag-Radar			history = ZedX; forecast is ZedX

We’re spraying a test block with treatments linked to each system.

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday the only forecast for a major infection on May 1-2 came from RIMpro MB, though RIMpro NEWA predicted minor infection. Today all except NEWA are indicating an infection. The difference is the forecast. Yesterday only Meteo Blue weather forecast indicated a major infection. Today, all except the NWS weather indicates a major infection. And Weather Underground says that there will be about 20 hr. of wetting starting Sunday about 8 AM.

There are probably more screens than you want to see, but I couldn’t stop. 

> On Apr 28, 2016, at 9:15 AM, Juliet Evelyn Carroll <jec3 at cornell.edu> wrote:
> 
> The fully interactive apple scab model is accessed from the Apple Diseases menu item choice under Pest Forecasts on the main menu, http://newa.cornell.edu <http://newa.cornell.edu/>
> From this page you can choose any location in NEWA and compare RIMpro for your locations in the US.
> Julie
> 
> Sent from my iPhone
> 
> On Apr 28, 2016, at 8:45 AM, Jon Clements <jon.clements at umass.edu <mailto:jon.clements at umass.edu>> wrote:
> 
>> I believe Randy would be looking at this:
>> 
>> http://newa.cornell.edu/index.php?page=weather-station-page&WeatherStation=khpn <http://newa.cornell.edu/index.php?page=weather-station-page&WeatherStation=khpn>
>> 
>> On Thu, Apr 28, 2016 at 8:03 AM, Marc Trapman <marc at rimpro.eu <mailto:marc at rimpro.eu>> wrote:
>> 1/ Can you please provide me link for the NEWA scab prediction so I can see what is going on at try to explain differences ?
>> 2/ MeteoBlue again proves very accurate in Europe. I can imagine that the quality for US is different.
>> 
>> Thanks, 
>> Marc 
>> 
>>> Op 28 apr. 2016  (week17), om 13:53 heeft Randal Pratt <rpratt713 at gmail.com <mailto:rpratt713 at gmail.com>> het volgende geschreven:
>>> 
>>> Now we have a complete divergence between NEWA and Rimpro.  NEWA  is showing a scab infection for the next three days and nothing for May 1st and 2nd, while Rimpro has a very minimal infection for the next three days and a tremendous infection for May 1st and 2nd.
>>> 
>>> Hard to reconcile these differences.
>>> 
>>> Randy Pratt
>>> Wilkens Fruit Farm
>>> 
>>> On Wed, Apr 27, 2016 at 11:59 AM, David A. Rosenberger <dar22 at cornell.edu <mailto:dar22 at cornell.edu>> wrote:
>>> Following are a few observations on RIMpro graphs as I am currently seeing them for Highland, NY:
>>> 
>>>   1. Based on RIMpro using our NEWA station data, we are now at or nearing full bloom, and we still have not had any infection events with RIM values above 38.
>>> 
>>>   2. My perception (from my own observations over the past two years, plus what I hear from the Europeans) is that infection periods with RIM values below 300 are not economically important in CLEAN orchards at the BEGINNING and END of the ascospore release period.  More caution is warranted when there are infection periods during the peak ascospore release times between tight cluster and petal fall.  Thus, I hope that no one is continuing to leave trees totally unsprayed into full bloom just because RIMpro has shown no infection periods with RIM values over 300.  (Besides, in many areas, you need sprays by pink bud stage to control mildew even if scab is not a problem.)
>>> 
>>>    4. Just a reminder about the graph at the bottom of the RIMpro output:  The bright red part of the graph shows mature spores, and that level will fluctuate as spores mature on days with no rain and then are released on days with rain.  The dark red or burgundy layer below that shows spores remaining in the leaf litter.  This declines in a more steady line, but the primary scab season will not be over until all of the deep red color at the base of the graph has disappeared.
>>> 
>>>    5. I have been comparing outputs from the MeteoBlue and NEWA data for our Highland location.  Because they are using different weather forecast sources, the forecasts are often quite different, which is not unexpected since any and all weather forecasts have a high degree of inaccuracy.  I am more concerned that the MeteoBlue system is indicating extended wetting periods have occurred where that has not been the case based on NEWA data and (to some degree) my own observations. Thus, the MeteoBlue virtualy data is, in my opinion, still unable to accurately ascertain when leaves are wet or dry and will need more fine-tuning before it produces a reliable record of infection events.
>>> 
>>> ********************************************
>>> Dave Rosenberger, Plant Pathologist (retired)
>>> Hudson Valley Lab, P.O. Box 727, Highland, NY 12528
>>>     Cell:     845-594-3060 <tel:845-594-3060>
>>> ********************************************
>>> 
>>> 
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> RIMproNA mailing list
>>> RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com <mailto:RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com>
>>> http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona <http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona>
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> -- 
>>> Randal Pratt
>>> 1335 White Hill Road
>>> Yorktown Heights, NY 10598
>>> 914-245-4098 <tel:914-245-4098>
>>> 914-245-5111 <tel:914-245-5111>
>>> Fax 914-245-4099 <tel:914-245-4099>_______________________________________________
>>> RIMproNA mailing list
>>> RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com <mailto:RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com>
>>> http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona <http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona>
>> 
>> Marc Trapman
>> Bio Fruit Advies / RIMpro
>> marc at rimpro.eu <mailto:marc at rimpro.eu>
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> _______________________________________________
>> RIMproNA mailing list
>> RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com <mailto:RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com>
>> http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona <http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona>
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> -- 
>> Jon Clements
>> aka 'Mr Honeycrisp'
>> UMass Cold Spring Orchard
>> 393 Sabin St.
>> Belchertown, MA  01007
>> 413-478-7219
>> umassfruit.com <http://umassfruit.com/>
>> _______________________________________________
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>> RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com <mailto:RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com>
>> http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona <http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona>
> _______________________________________________
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