[rimprona] Recent observations on RIMpro

Thu Apr 28 11:21:11 EDT 2016

I apologize if I have used up everyone's day opening this can of worms.

Randy
On Apr 28, 2016 11:16 AM, "Marc Trapman" <marc at rimpro.eu> wrote:
>
> Hi,
>
> I am really impressed by all you are doing and the accuracy of the
evaluations.
> Yes, most comes down on the accuracy of the wether forecast, RIMpro is
just an interpretation of that.
> If I was grower or consultant, I would plan a decent cover spray (=
certainly every row to be treated) with a classic protectant on April 30 or
early morning May 1st. Than wait and see and anticipate to apply a
kick-back fungicide after the infection as it tuns out to be the big event
dat is predicted now in several forecast scenarios.
>
> Marc
>
>
>
>
>> Op 28 apr. 2016  (week17), om 16:11 heeft Daniel Cooley <
dcooley at umass.edu> het volgende geschreven:
>>
>> Our models look much like Dave’s. In addition to looking at NEWA and
RIMpro driven by weather stations/yr.no,, Meteo Blue and HRDPS, we’ve been
following SkyBit and Ag-Radar which is driven by SkyBit, all for the UMass
orchard at Belchertown.
>>
>> NEWA history = weather station on site; forecast is US National Weather
Service
>> RIMpro NEWA   history =  NEWA weather station;  forecast is YR.NO
>> RIMpro MB  history =  MB; forecast is MB
>> RIMpro HRDPS history =  HRDPS;  forecast is YR.NO
>> SkyBit history = ZedX; forecast is ZedX
>> Ag-Radar history = ZedX; forecast is ZedX
>>
>> We’re spraying a test block with treatments linked to each system.
>>
>> What a difference a day makes. Yesterday the only forecast for a major
infection on May 1-2 came from RIMpro MB, though RIMpro NEWA predicted
minor infection. Today all except NEWA are indicating an infection. The
difference is the forecast. Yesterday only Meteo Blue weather forecast
indicated a major infection. Today, all except the NWS weather indicates a
major infection. And Weather Underground says that there will be about 20
hr. of wetting starting Sunday about 8 AM.
>>
>> There are probably more screens than you want to see, but I couldn’t
stop.
>>
>> <4-27 scab main sm.jpg><4-28 scab main sm.jpg>
>> <4-27 NEWA sm.jpg><4-28 NEWA sm.jpg>
>> <4-27 MB sm.jpg><4-28 MB sm.jpg>
>> <4-27 AR scab infection pct sm.jpg><4-28 AR scab infection pct sm.jpg>
>>
>>
>>
>>> On Apr 28, 2016, at 9:15 AM, Juliet Evelyn Carroll <jec3 at cornell.edu>
wrote:
>>>
>>> The fully interactive apple scab model is accessed from the Apple
Diseases menu item choice under Pest Forecasts on the main menu,
http://newa.cornell.edu
>>> From this page you can choose any location in NEWA and compare RIMpro
for your locations in the US.
>>> Julie
>>>
>>> Sent from my iPhone
>>>
>>> On Apr 28, 2016, at 8:45 AM, Jon Clements <jon.clements at umass.edu>
wrote:
>>>
>>>> I believe Randy would be looking at this:
>>>>
>>>>
http://newa.cornell.edu/index.php?page=weather-station-page&WeatherStation=khpn
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Apr 28, 2016 at 8:03 AM, Marc Trapman <marc at rimpro.eu> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> 1/ Can you please provide me link for the NEWA scab prediction so I
can see what is going on at try to explain differences ?
>>>>> 2/ MeteoBlue again proves very accurate in Europe. I can imagine that
the quality for US is different.
>>>>>
>>>>> Thanks,
>>>>> Marc
>>>>>
>>>>>> Op 28 apr. 2016  (week17), om 13:53 heeft Randal Pratt <
rpratt713 at gmail.com> het volgende geschreven:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Now we have a complete divergence between NEWA and Rimpro.  NEWA  is
showing a scab infection for the next three days and nothing for May 1st
and 2nd, while Rimpro has a very minimal infection for the next three days
and a tremendous infection for May 1st and 2nd.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Hard to reconcile these differences.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Randy Pratt
>>>>>> Wilkens Fruit Farm
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wed, Apr 27, 2016 at 11:59 AM, David A. Rosenberger <
dar22 at cornell.edu> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Following are a few observations on RIMpro graphs as I am currently
seeing them for Highland, NY:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>   1. Based on RIMpro using our NEWA station data, we are now at or
nearing full bloom, and we still have not had any infection events with RIM
values above 38.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>   2. My perception (from my own observations over the past two
years, plus what I hear from the Europeans) is that infection periods with
RIM values below 300 are not economically important in CLEAN orchards at
the BEGINNING and END of the ascospore release period.  More caution is
warranted when there are infection periods during the peak ascospore
release times between tight cluster and petal fall.  Thus, I hope that no
one is continuing to leave trees totally unsprayed into full bloom just
because RIMpro has shown no infection periods with RIM values over 300.
 (Besides, in many areas, you need sprays by pink bud stage to control
mildew even if scab is not a problem.)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>    4. Just a reminder about the graph at the bottom of the RIMpro
output:  The bright red part of the graph shows mature spores, and that
level will fluctuate as spores mature on days with no rain and then are
released on days with rain.  The dark red or burgundy layer below that
shows spores remaining in the leaf litter.  This declines in a more steady
line, but the primary scab season will not be over until all of the deep
red color at the base of the graph has disappeared.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>    5. I have been comparing outputs from the MeteoBlue and NEWA
data for our Highland location.  Because they are using different weather
forecast sources, the forecasts are often quite different, which is not
unexpected since any and all weather forecasts have a high degree of
inaccuracy.  I am more concerned that the MeteoBlue system is indicating
extended wetting periods have occurred where that has not been the case
based on NEWA data and (to some degree) my own observations. Thus, the
MeteoBlue virtualy data is, in my opinion, still unable to accurately
ascertain when leaves are wet or dry and will need more fine-tuning before
it produces a reliable record of infection events.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ********************************************
>>>>>>> Dave Rosenberger, Plant Pathologist (retired)
>>>>>>> Hudson Valley Lab, P.O. Box 727, Highland, NY 12528
>>>>>>>     Cell:     845-594-3060
>>>>>>> ********************************************
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>>> RIMproNA mailing list
>>>>>>> RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com
>>>>>>> http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Randal Pratt
>>>>>> 1335 White Hill Road
>>>>>> Yorktown Heights, NY 10598
>>>>>> 914-245-4098
>>>>>> 914-245-5111
>>>>>> Fax 914-245-4099
>>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>> RIMproNA mailing list
>>>>>> RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com
>>>>>> http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Marc Trapman
>>>>> Bio Fruit Advies / RIMpro
>>>>> marc at rimpro.eu
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> RIMproNA mailing list
>>>>> RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com
>>>>> http://virtualorchard.com/mailman/listinfo/rimprona
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Jon Clements
>>>> aka 'Mr Honeycrisp'
>>>> UMass Cold Spring Orchard
>>>> 393 Sabin St.
>>>> Belchertown, MA  01007
>>>> 413-478-7219
>>>> umassfruit.com
>>>>
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>>>
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>>
>>
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>
>
> Marc Trapman
> Bio Fruit Advies / RIMpro
> marc at rimpro.eu
>
>
>
>
>
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