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<div apple-content-edited="true" class="">The recommendation is to set the biofix based on when the first spores are discharging. However, most folks will not be able to determine when that occurs. Thus, unless someone in your immediate area is checking for
spore discharge either in the lab or using a spore trap, you should set your biofix to be the same as the date of green-tip on cultivars that are among the first to reach green-tip. If you want the early season forecasts to be a bit conservative (i.e., meaning
that it may indicate early-season infection risks on the high side), then set the biofix for a few days before green-tip. In the examples that I described below, I had set my biofix to March 12 whereas we really did not reach green-tip until March 16 at our
location. I made the decision to use a biofix 4-days ahead of green-tip because I found some mature spores discharging under the microscope on March 6th, but those were from crushed pseudothecia rather than spores that discharged naturally from wetted leaves,
which is the method recommended for determining the biofix. Thus, I opted to pick a date between my March 6th observation and the green-tip date of 16 March, and picking March 12th as the biofix was admittedly a bit arbitrary. It would have been better it
I had continued running spore discharge tests from 6 March until I found natural discharge, but I could not find a good source of scabby leaves because our season was so dry last summer.
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<div apple-content-edited="true" class="">The biofix date can make a significant difference. When I change the biofix date from 12 March to 16 March and rerun the MeteoBlue forecast that I described below, the RIM value predicted for April 1-2-3 drops from
600 with the 12 March biofix to 300 with the 16 March biofix. For locations where it is not feasible to test spore discharge on a regular basis lesding up to green tip, the uncertainty surrounding the best biofix date is still a real weakness of the RIMpro
program.</div>
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<div class="">On Mar 29, 2016, at 12:30 PM, Greg Parzych <<a href="mailto:greg@rogersorchards.com" class="">greg@rogersorchards.com</a>> wrote:</div>
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<div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#1F497D" class="">Curious as to what users are entering for the "</span><span style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Cambria","serif";color:#4F4F4F;background:white" class="">Biofix
Venturia simulation: first dischargeable ascospores" under local parameters. Marc Trapman reccomended a date of 4/1 but that seems late if we're already looking at 6-8% maturity.
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<div class="MsoNormal"><b class=""><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"" class="">From:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"" class=""> RIMproNA [<a href="mailto:rimprona-bounces@virtualorchard.com" class="">mailto:rimprona-bounces@virtualorchard.com</a>]
<b class="">On Behalf Of </b>David A. Rosenberger<br class="">
<b class="">Sent:</b> Monday, March 28, 2016 8:04 PM<br class="">
<b class="">To:</b> RIMpro Users North America<br class="">
<b class="">Subject:</b> SPAM: [rimprona] Model comparisons<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">Depending on which weather source you believe, we may have our first significant scab infection period in the Hudson Valley with the rains that are forecast for Thursday, March 31. Marc Trapman has given me the opportunity to compare
RIMpro this year using two different data input systems, both of which are providing outputs for the orchard at the Hudson Valley Lab.
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<div class="MsoNormal">One data input system uses our NEWA weather station at the Hudson Valley Lab (Highland) for data on what has already happened. This system uses the Norwegian “<a href="http://yr.no/" class="">yr.no</a>” weather forecast system for weather
predictions. I call this model system "Highland-N"<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">The other input system uses only the MeteoBlue data for both past weather and predicted weather; I call this Highland-MB. Thus this is a virtual station that never accesses any real data from our orchard.<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">In addition, I subscribe to Accuweather for weather forecasts and occasionally check the US Weather Service, which I can access through the NEWA Network. Thus, I can access four different forecasting systems when I want to know what to
expect over the next few days.<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">Tonight the output for Highland-MB is suggesting a major scab infection period with a RIM value over 600 will occur April 1-2-3 whereas the Highland-N output suggests that the wetting periods April 1-2-3 will be too short to allow any
significant infection, generating a RIM value of only about 40. Accuweather agrees with the
<a href="http://yr.no/" class="">yr.no</a> forecast whereas the US Weather Service forecast agrees with MeteoBlue.<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">Here is the interesting part: The spray window, based on wind conditions as predicted by US Weather Service will be Wednesday, starting about 2 AM and continuing until about 10 pm. Accuweather is providing the same wind forecast.<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">So, do we need to spray on Wednesday (as suggested by the MeteoBlue forecast and US weather service), or can we expect to ride through the rains this week-end without getting a scab infection period? The predicted infection periods are
still too far away to get an accurate read (i.e., weather forecasts have a lot of error when they are for more than 48 hr in advance), but we should have a better idea by tomorrow night. Often the various weather models begin to converge as we get closer
to the predicted event. <o:p class=""></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">I pass along this info primarily to help everyone understand how I find value in RIMpro, but also to illustrate that the RIMpro output is no better than the weather forecast that it is using. If you are using RIMpro, it can give a valuable
heads-up about the potential for major infection periods as they approach, but because weather forecasts are often inaccurate, expecially beyond 48 hours, it will predict false-positives at times (as may be the case right now with MeteoBLue and US Weather),
or it may give false negatives as may be the case right now with <a href="http://yr.no/" class="">
yr.no</a> and Accuweather. For critical spray decisions such many will be facing later this week, it would always be wise to look at the weather data going into RIMpro and then compare that with at least one other source of weather forecasts. If you can
wait to start spraying until 48 to 24 hours before the predicted infection event, you will have more accurate predictions because RIMpro will be using more accurate weather forecasts. However, I know that waiting until 24 to 48 hours before an event to make
decisions often is not possible, either because of wind conditions or because of the time required to cover all acreage.<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">Right now, if I had my orchard at risk (i.e., without recent fungicide coverage and warm weather predicted for the next few days), I’d be planning to spray on Wednesday given the risk levels as I see them and the forecast for warm temperatures
that will push bud growth.<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">NOTE: This list-serve is not meant to take large messages as occurred when I tried to post screen-shots of my RIMpro outputs. Therefore I will post this message along with the screen shots of the RIMpro outputon my blog (<a href="http://blogs.cornell.edu/plantpathhvl/blog-2014/" class="">http://blogs.cornell.edu/plantpathhvl/blog-2014/</a>
) sometime later tonight or tomorrow morning.<o:p class=""></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal"><span style="" class="">********************************************<br class="">
Dave Rosenberger, Plant Pathologist,<br class="">
Hudson Valley Lab, P.O. Box 727, Highland, NY 12528<br class="">
Cell: 845-594-3060<br class="">
********************************************<o:p class=""></o:p></span></div>
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