[rimprona] RIMPRO ascospore biofix

Tue Mar 29 13:12:36 EDT 2016

Unless you actually have a source of ascospore discharge information (which
I doubt you do), you should set it the same date as you set for green tip.
Make sense?

Jon

On Tue, Mar 29, 2016 at 12:30 PM, Greg Parzych <greg at rogersorchards.com>
wrote:

> Curious as to what users are entering for the "Biofix Venturia
> simulation: first dischargeable ascospores" under local parameters.  Marc
> Trapman reccomended a date of 4/1 but that seems late if we're already
> looking at 6-8% maturity.
>
>
>
> *From:* RIMproNA [mailto:rimprona-bounces at virtualorchard.com] *On Behalf
> Of *David A. Rosenberger
> *Sent:* Monday, March 28, 2016 8:04 PM
> *To:* RIMpro Users North America
> *Subject:* SPAM: [rimprona] Model comparisons
>
>
>
> Depending on which weather source you believe, we may have our first
> significant scab infection period in the Hudson Valley with the rains that
> are forecast for Thursday, March 31. Marc Trapman has given me the
> opportunity to compare RIMpro this year using two different data input
> systems, both of which are providing outputs for the orchard at the Hudson
> Valley Lab.
>
>
>
> One data input system uses our NEWA weather station at the Hudson Valley
> Lab (Highland) for data on what has already happened. This system uses the
> Norwegian “yr.no” weather forecast system for weather predictions.  I
> call this model system "Highland-N"
>
>
>
> The other input system uses only the MeteoBlue data for both past weather
> and predicted weather; I call this Highland-MB.  Thus this is a virtual
> station that never accesses any real data from our orchard.
>
>
>
> In addition, I subscribe to Accuweather for weather forecasts and
> occasionally check the US Weather Service, which I can access through the
> NEWA Network. Thus, I can access four different forecasting systems when I
> want to know what to expect over the next few days.
>
>
>
> Tonight the output for Highland-MB is suggesting a major scab infection
> period with a RIM value over 600 will occur April 1-2-3 whereas the
> Highland-N output suggests that the wetting periods April 1-2-3 will be too
> short to allow any significant infection, generating a RIM value of only
> about 40.   Accuweather agrees with the yr.no forecast whereas the US
> Weather Service forecast agrees with MeteoBlue.
>
>
>
> Here is the interesting part: The spray window, based on wind conditions
> as predicted by US Weather Service will be Wednesday,  starting about 2 AM
> and continuing until about 10 pm.  Accuweather is providing the same wind
> forecast.
>
>
>
> So, do we need to spray on Wednesday (as suggested by the MeteoBlue
> forecast and US weather service), or can we expect to ride through the
> rains this week-end without getting a scab infection period?  The predicted
> infection periods are still too far away to get an accurate read (i.e.,
> weather forecasts have a lot of error when they are for more than 48 hr in
> advance), but we should have a better idea by tomorrow night.  Often the
> various weather models begin to converge as we get closer to the predicted
> event.
>
>
>
> I pass along this info primarily to help everyone understand how I find
> value in RIMpro, but also to illustrate that the RIMpro output is no better
> than the weather forecast that it is using.  If you are using RIMpro, it
> can give a valuable heads-up about the potential for major infection
> periods as they approach, but because weather forecasts are often
> inaccurate, expecially beyond 48 hours, it will predict false-positives at
> times (as may be the case right now with MeteoBLue and US Weather), or it
> may give false negatives as may be the case right now with yr.no and
> Accuweather.  For critical spray decisions such many will be facing later
> this week, it would always be wise to look at the weather data going into
> RIMpro  and then compare that with at least one other source of weather
> forecasts.  If you can wait to start spraying until 48 to 24 hours before
> the predicted infection event, you will have more accurate predictions
> because RIMpro will be using more accurate weather forecasts.  However, I
> know that waiting until 24 to 48 hours before an event to make decisions
> often is not possible, either because of wind conditions or because of the
> time required to cover all acreage.
>
>
>
> Right now, if I had my orchard at risk (i.e., without recent fungicide
> coverage and warm weather predicted for the next few days), I’d be planning
> to spray on Wednesday given the risk levels as I see them and the forecast
> for warm temperatures that will push bud growth.
>
>
>
> NOTE: This list-serve is not meant to take large messages as occurred when
> I tried to post screen-shots of my RIMpro outputs.  Therefore I will post
> this message along with the screen shots of the RIMpro outputon my blog (
> http://blogs.cornell.edu/plantpathhvl/blog-2014/ ) sometime later tonight
> or tomorrow morning.
>
>
>
> ********************************************
> Dave Rosenberger, Plant Pathologist,
> Hudson Valley Lab, P.O. Box 727, Highland, NY 12528
>     Cell:     845-594-3060
> ********************************************
>
>
>
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> RIMproNA at virtualorchard.com
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>
>

-- 
Jon Clements
aka 'Mr Honeycrisp'
UMass Cold Spring Orchard
393 Sabin St.
Belchertown, MA  01007
413-478-7219
umassfruit.com
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